So in the first video of Mathetics of poker(MoP) WiltonTilt starts on with the basics. He goes through converting a ratio to a percentage and converting a percentage to a ratio. He explains it in a very simple way and goes through a few examples which is a big help. Knowing what the chances you are of winning a hand agaisnt a certain range is essential if you are to make the correct call( a +EV call).
Here's a list of the common ratio's converte to %'s:
5/1 = 83% (17%)
4/1 = 80% (20%)
3/1 = 75% (25%)
2/1 = 67%(33%)
7/2 = 77% (23%)
5/2 = 71% (29%)
7/4 = 63% (37%)
6/4 = 60% (40%)
5/4 = 55% (45%)
When making a call you must work out your percentage on winning against a villans range and see if you are getting the correct odds to call.
Here's an example:
Carlos Poker 0.10/0.20, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker
saw flop | saw showdown
Button ($4.33)
SB ($1.00)
BB ($17.50)
UTG ($15.85)
UTG+1 ($18.71)
MP Hero ($20.91)
MP ($23.43)
CO-1 CO-1 ($7.70)
CO ($20.30)
Preflop: Hero is in MP with 4
4
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 0.80, Hero raises to 2.60, 1 fold, CO-1 moves all-in for 7.70
I am left with calling $5.1 into a $11.4 pot. That's 2.2/1 for me to call. So looking at the chart odds above I need to have a 31%* of winning against Villans range for me to make this call. Putting in a range through Pokerstove I came up with this:
* Originally I had it had 36% which is way off and I said we should fold because we didnt get good enough odds. Here's how to work out the EV:
The best way to work it out is to be able to do the EV calculations:
(Equity x current pot) + ((1 - equity) x -(amount to call)) > 0
11.4Eq - 5.1 + 5.1Eq >0
Eq > 5.1/16.5
Eq > 30.9%
"An easier way is (amount to call) divided by (total pot after you call) but it always helps to know where the figures are coming from."
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.722% 32.49% 00.24% 22249852 161910.00 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 67.278% 67.04% 00.24% 45918488 161910.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
This range give me the right odds to call, and if he is any looser then it's a definite call.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.638% 36.40% 00.24% 38638940 256531.00 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 63.362% 63.12% 00.24% 67010846 256531.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
This range give us just about enough to make a call. But I think folding is the opition. With one range we are a good bit behind, the other we are good a tiny percent of the time so I'd air on the side of caution and fold.(which I did).
So we can clearly see the value in knowing our chance's of winning against a certain range. But we should also know what hand is best to 3bet with or even 4bet squeeze and where is the point of commitment so I will go through that now.
Pocket Pair's vs Tight Range(J's+, AKo,AKs):
As we seen against a range of J's+,AKo+ we are a 32%(2.2/1) with 4's dog. The higher the pair the better chance obviously. If we have J's we are a 36% chance. So we would need to be getting at least 2/1 on a call to be stacking off with a low pocket pair pre-flop to be making a +EV call.
Pocket Pair vs Loose Range( TT+,AQ0+)
Our 4's have a 36% chance of winning here, and J's have us in good shape as a 46% dog.
Suited Connectors Vs Tight Range( J's+, AKo+)
Everyone love there SC's it seems, but how do they fair against big Pairs and overcards? Not very well is the answer. For example JTs is a 28.2% dog against our tight range. If we are going to war with a SC we should be holding 65s as that give's us the best chance of winning since it is a 29.7% dog.
P.S I havent included AKs as we will nearly always get the right odds to call since it's a 42% dog.
Suited Connectors vs Loose Range:(T's+, AQo+)
This time JTs is our best hope with a 32.1% chance of winning against a looser opponent. 65s is our second favourite holding giving us a 31.8% chance.
*We are a favourite with AKs fwiw.
Axs vs Tight range(J's+, AKo+)
Another popular 3bet choice is Axs since us holding 1 Ace will limited the number of Aces available and it also give's us 1 overcard against J's, Q's and K's. Outside of AKs, AQs is our best hoping with it being a 32% dog. A5s is next in line giving us a 30.7% chance of sucking out.
Pot Equity
Pot Equity and Expected value is what wilt covered in the last section of his video. To be honest, my understanding of Pot equity isnt great at all. But I'll give it a try anyway.
According to the video Pot Equity is "our stake in the pot(% or $) if the hand is played out to showdown"
Formula: (Our % chance of winning x (the pot)
So to work this out, we need to work out a range for villan, or know his holding. I'll use this hand to explain it more:
OnGame Skin, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $7.85
SB: $7.10
Hero (BB): $29.55
UTG: $32.75
CO: $22.50
SB posts $0.15
Pre-Flop: 9
8 dealt to Hero (BB)UTG folds, CO raises to $1, BTN calls $1, SB folds, Hero calls $0.70
Flop: ($3.15) 5
J 7
(3 Players)Hero bets $2.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $6.85 and is All-In, Hero ??
So I have a bet of $4.35 to call. Now we can work out if it is +ev or not.
I'll do the quity vs hs range and what he actually had. He showed J
KSo when we stove this we get:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.071% 37.07% 00.00% 367 0.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 62.929% 62.93% 00.00% 623 0.00 { KsJh }
since we what the %'s and the sise of the pot we can fill in the equation.
Expected Value(EV)
"EV is the determination of what our long term expect outcome is on a
given hand."
EV = Our % of winning(pot) - There % of winning(size of bet we have to call)
EV = .37(12.5) - .63(4.35)
Our EV is $1.88
Another way of working out EV: "If you did .37 x 16.85 (which is the total pot after you call) then you'd get 6.23.
6.23 - 4.35 (which is what you have to call) = 1.88 (which is your EV)."
That's what was covered in the first video. The second video he cover's Pot Odds, Implied Odds, Fold equity, Hand combination and G-bucks. Hopefully I'll have a review of the second video next week.
P.S I am not 100% sure all my calculations are right, if anyone notices a mistake let me know. I'll try get someone to review to make sure it's fine.
